Record 'superflu' outbreak battering hospitals is 'worst case scenario' for NHS before Christmas

Flu cases have jumped by 55% in a week, new data shows, with a doctors's strike just around the corner

NHS officials warn the country faces a 'worst-case scenario' before Christmas as hospitals grapple with one of the worst flu epidemics seen in decades and an impending doctors strike.

Flu cases have jumped by 55% in a week, according to NHS figures, now at a record high for this time of year, with an average of 2,660 flu patients in hospital each day last week.

Last week, there were 1,717 cases as hospitals scramble to beat the 'tidal wave' of viruses sweeping the nation in the run-up to Christmas, with enough flu patients each day to fill more than three whole hospital trusts.

In Cheshire, 60 people were hospitalised with flu across three NHS trusts in the first week of December, 28 of whom were treated by Countess of Chester Hospital NHS Foundation Trust. The figure rises to 390 for the wider North West region, as shown in our interactive map below.

In comparison, this time last year the number of national cases stood at 1,861 patients, while in 2023 it was just 402. Weekly flu numbers in England peaked at 5,408 patients last winter and reached 5,441 over the winter of 2022/23, the highest level since the pandemic.

The new data has emerged ahead of potential doctors' strikes, which could take place on Wednesday (December 17), running until December 22.

Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Wes Streeting has lodged a last-minute improved offer with the British Medical Association (BMA), which he hopes will “end resident doctors strikes once and for all”.

Health chiefs have further warned that the numbers have already increased sharply since the week covered by the data, with no peak in sight.

Parents and children have been encouraged to get vaccinated against what has also been dubbed "superflu" ahead of Christmas, where they might spend time with elderly or more vulnerable people. The strain is thought to be a mutated version of the influenza A (HSN2) strain, called “subclade K”.

“With record demand for A&E and ambulances and an impending resident doctors strike, this unprecedented wave of super flu is leaving the NHS facing a worst-case scenario for this time of year – with staff being pushed to the limit to keep providing the best possible care for patients," Prof Meghana Pandit, the NHS national medical director, said.

“The number of patients in hospital with flu is extremely high for this time of year. Even worse, it continues to rise, and the peak is not in sight yet, so the NHS faces an extremely challenging few weeks ahead.

“NHS staff have pulled out all the stops to vaccinate more people than last year, and with just a week left to ensure maximum immunity from flu for Christmas Day, I would urge anyone eligible for the vaccine to please book an appointment or visit a walk-in site as soon as possible.

"Vaccination is the best protection against getting potentially very ill, and it also helps protect those around you.

“We have prepared earlier for winter than ever before, and stress-tested services to ensure people have a range of ways to get the help they need and avoid needing to go to A&E.”

Daniel Elkeles, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents NHS trusts, has also underlined how this "very nasty strain of flu" has been handed the perfect conditions to spread.

"So children are still at school, it's warm and wet, so it's perfect flu-spreading conditions," he explained to Times Radio.

"When you were talking about anything like Covid, I think we need to get back into the habit that if you are coughing and sneezing, but you're not unwell enough to not go to work, then you must wear a mask when you're in public spaces, including on public transport to stop the chances of you giving your virus to somebody else.

"And we were all very good about infection control during Covid. And we really, really need to get back to that now."